Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Election update

I wanted to let everybody know that we won our race late last night with 50.6%. It was another long night as we did not get the vote totals until 3:00 in the morning. Four years ago we fell behind early and had to slowly climb back the rest of the night. This year we got out a decent size lead and held on due to the onslaught of inner city voters. While I do not like it being that close, I am pleased we did as well as we did considering the bloodbath the rest of the Republicans took across the state and nationwide. We lost the state house of reps but we held the state senate pending two recounts. It's weird to win by only 1428 votes and not be the closest race. We now have the nickname of landslide Vanwoerkom.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

What went wrong?

Okay, I just watched my beloved Steelers lose against the dreaded Oakland Raiders. Just two weeks ago it looked like the Raiders might go winless this season and now my team loses to them. What should have been at least a playoff season is now looking like the dreaded 6-10 rebuilding season.

I just don't understand. The Steelers have basically the same roster as last year's superbowl team but can't seem to put it together this year. Maybe the team over achieved last year. Could the problem be Big Ben and all the health issues he has faced? Could losing the Bus and his leadership really make that much of a difference? Maybe it's that Bill Cowher has already checked out and is looking forward to his new home in North Carolina.

As painful as this season has been, I am still living off the adrenaline of last year and am not as upset as I should be. I feel like I had my great year last year and I can live with a down season. Besides I still have Michigan football to cheer for.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

My friend Leonard

A little over 8 years ago during our first campaign, I met my friend Leonard. He responded to a campaign letter that we sent out and he offered to volunteer. At first I was skeptical because he promised to do quite a bit of work but he is mildly retarded and I doubted he would follow through. Boy was I surprised. Leonard has turned out to be my most loyal and hardworking volunteer. In fact, I would guess he works harder than some of the paid campaign staff. Over the past 8 years he has placed upwards of ten thousand yards signs and walked in over a 100 parades. While that sounds like an exaggeration he would probably argue correctly that the numbers are too conservative.

Leonard knows our district better than anybody else I know. Last week as he and I were driving in the most rural part of our district placing signs, I began laughing because he knows all the roads, the address numbers and the townships boundaries. Even people living in those boondocks don't know the area as well as Leonard. When we first started campaigning many years ago I would try to map out our routes but now I just get in the car, hand Leonard our sign list and he tells me where to turn. I think he likes this because we get to spend time together and he is empowered to tell me what to do.

Leonard stands for everything that is right in politics. Because of his service, our campaign and my boss has personally embraced him with open arms. He has become part of the Van Woerkom family and he has ownership of the campaign. He has also experienced plenty of perks including attending fancy fundraisers and meeting Governors, Senators and even Presidents. I am still jealous because my boss gave his extra ticket to Ford's birthday party to Leonard instead of me but at least he is deserving of it. Leonard demonstrates that you don't have to be rich or successful to contribute in politics. He has proven that hard work and loyalty trump all else and I find that refreshing.

Two weeks ago I began to get sad as this will most likely be our last and final campaign together. He and I have been through four tough elections and have grown quite close. He has become more than just a volunteer but a good friend. My goal over the next two crazy weeks is to not get lost in the flurry of activity but to simply enjoy Leonard's friendship along the campaign trail.

Saturday, October 21, 2006

What the election is all about

I was listening to the radio this morning and I heard the hosts talking about what it means if Democrats take control of the legislature. They pointed out several ideas that the Democrats have proposed including eliminating the bush tax cuts and retreating in Iraq. The purpose was to scare conservative listeners into voting this election.

If elected, the Democrats will certainly try to advance their left wing agenda after being out of power for so long but this doesn't matter much to the electorate. Even though their agenda is way out of the mainstream, this election is not about issues or agendas. If you listen to the Democrats on the campaign trail, they are not promoting a national agenda like the Republican's Contract with America. Instead they are tapping into the general dissatisfaction of the electorate and urging change. What is driving this dissatisfaction? Some might argue that corruption is the key issue this year but I think most people realize that Republicans and Democrats are equally corrupt. Instead this election is all about competence and a lack of public confidence in our leaders.

For many years, Republicans have been seen as the more effective managers of government resources. The public may not have always agreed with them but at least they trusted them to get the job done. That image has been tarnished fairly or unfairly by several factors including Iraq and Katrina. Most of us see Iraq as a mess that has no end in sight. That's the reality of war but people want to know that we have a realistic plan to win. After all the blood shed "stay the course" rings hollow and serves only as a substitute for a legitimate plan. I realize that the Democrats don't have a plan either but that isn't the point. The public doesn't expect them to have one. They expect Republicans with their traditional foreign policy experience to have one and they don't.

But more than Iraq, the memory of Katrina is what really hurts Republicans. The federal response was totally ineffective and we are still paying the price for that. When disaster strikes, people want comfort and reassurance that somebody is in control and in charge. They need someone or something to believe in. Instead what they got were stories of chaos and violence. This event more than any other cut to the core of Republican dissatisfaction because it demonstrated the government's incompetence. Republicans were once defined as the responsible, competent party but unfortunately they failed that test during Katrina. If would be as if the Democrats were exposed as being intolerant or uncaring because those are the things that define who they are to the public.

Heck, even the Foley scandal plays to the incompetence of how Republican leaders handled the situation. People were equally embarrassed by the cover up and blame game going on in Washington as they were to what actually happened to the pages. The public began to wonder if the Speaker of the House cannot even control his own congressman then how is he going to be effective in turning the country around?

So while there is a concerted effort among radio hosts and internet bloggers to scare people with the upcoming Democrat agenda, I just don't think it will sink it with the voters. Sometimes the issues play second fiddle to the desire to have leaders that we trust to get things done. Right now, Republicans do not fit that description and no amount of late advertising or scare tactics can change that perception.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Miami

I have never been a big fan of Miami football. I hated them in the 80's and cheered when they lost to Penn St in the Fiesta Bowl. The teams back then were made up of punks and while they briefly cleaned up their act, it looks like thuggery has again returned.

I couldn't believe it when I watched the fight that broke out last weekend between Miami and Florida International. I was especially shocked to see the player who was wildly swinging his helmet as a weapon. I assumed like many others that there would be swift and severe punishment for each player involved in the melee. Florida International suspended all the players involved indefinitely which was the right thing to do. But apparently the Miami leadership could care less.

Donna Shalala, the President of the University and former Clinton cabinet member, came out this week and said that the players would only be suspended one game and that she was sick of the witch hunt that was going on. When pressed if she had seen tape of the fight she said she saw the fight in person but did not watch the tape. Watching it in person, I am sure she missed the severity of the situation. That is the only explanation for why she would treat this instance so lightly. But how does the person handing out the punishment not even watch what happened on the field? Her punishment is a joke because the game the players will miss is against Duke which is the equivalent of suspending them during the bye week.

I guess Miami cares more about football and making money off their crooked team than they do about character and conduct. It's not like this is the first time Miami players have stepped out of line. Last year in the Peach bowl they got in a fight with LSU in the tunnel before the game. Then this year they tried to intimidate Louisville by stomping on their logo at midfield. But with leaders like Shalala sticking up for their behavior, it't no wonder the thug mentality continues to grow in college athletics.

To view the fight go here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JWeE9KqZjQ

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Mainstream Media

I am sick and tired of the mainstream media and their intention on influencing politics. Every time I turn on CNN or CNBC or one of the networks they all speak from the same lame talking points. The past few weeks have been on Mark Foley and how that scandal will hurt the Republicans in the midterm elections. Not that they have any facts to back up this allegation but they think by repeating that argument often enough it will drive done Republican support and become a self fulfilling prophecy. What's interesting is that the polling suggests that Foley's scandal doesn't make much of a difference with evangelicals because they can see the scandal as what it is. The problem is Mark Foley and his inability to control his sexual desires. And since when did Democrats care about that issue among elected officials? What's sad is that these young pages are being disregarded as nothing more than pawns in a political power grab.

Lost in all the Foley discussions is the fact that the Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid has his own scandal to explain. He was in partnership with a crooked Las Vegas lawyer on a shady property deal. Reid made more than a $1 million on a $400,000 investment and then didn't report it to Senate. What's really frustrating is that the mainstream media doesn't seem to care. The Washington Post just assumes it was a reporting oversight and gives him the benefit of the doubt. But when it comes to Hastert they assume he is guilty until proven innocent. Why the difference in approach? Because Reid's indiscretions don't fit the media's talking points that the Republicans are the party of corruption. The reality is that both parties are broken and have deep rooted corruption. But if that story got out then there wouldn't be a compelling enough reason to vote out Republicans.

Maybe I am naive but what ever happened to real reporting and unbias news coverage. All we have today are spin machines for the political powers masquerading as news. No wonder most people just turn off the news and figure they are powerless to change anything.

Friday, October 13, 2006

Winter Already?

I woke up yesterday to Flurries and this morning there was actual snow on the ground. What the heck happened to summer? Just last week I was up in Ludington and it was warm and sunny and I was able to walk out on the pier. One week later, I am ready to go into hibernation. It just doesn't seem right, how cold and dark it gets this early in the fall. Now I have to endure 8 more months of this crap before summer peaks around the corner. Oh well, at least it's football season.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Montana

I realize that most people have no idea who Conrad Burns is but he is the current Republican senator from Montana. He is facing a tough challenge from John Tester and is viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent in the senate.

Because I have no life, I sometimes watch the debates that C-Span plays. Earlier tonight I was watching the Burns-Tester debate and if I were a voter in Montana I wouldn't vote. Burns comes across horribly. He makes George Bush look articulate and fast on his feet. I have a hard time figuring out how Burns got elected in the first place. Not only does he appear to not be very bright but he is also tangled up in the Jack Abramoff scandal. Tester on the other hand is your typical liberal that opposes the patriot act, wants to retreat on the war and wants to repeal the Bush tax cuts. What kind of choice is that for Montana voters? I keep asking myself if this is the best Montana can come up with?

I just read a article on this race by Hugh Hewitt who I usually agree with but not today. He argues that one should vote for Burns to retain Republican majority and because of the Supreme Court. While I am worried about the court, that doesn't entitle Republicans to put up crappy candidates and expect the public to vote for them. As I look at the coming election, maybe Republicans are getting what they deserve. When we send incompetent and corrupt people to DC, it's no wonder the public is getting tired of us.

North Korea

Let me preface this post by stating that I have absolutely no expertise in handling international affairs. Having said that, let me share some amateur thoughts on the recent showdown with North Korea

1. Bill Clinton's policies did not work. Under his administration we gave them millions of dollars and shared technical information in the hopes that they would back down from building a bomb. Obviously they had no intention on following through on their promises and played Clinton like a sucker. This example should demonstrate that we should not trust dictators.

2. North Korea is becoming more and more desperate for money. The reason they set off the bomb was to scare us into coming to the table and offering them more money. They think they can play Bush just like they played Clinton. Why else are they demanding that we have one on one discussions with them? My guess is that if they do not receive a huge influx of cash within the next year, the country will collapse just as communist Russia did.

3. Iran is watching to see how we respond. If we are seen as weak they will be emboldened with their nuclear program. Other countries are also watching to see if they should move forward with their own programs including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to name a few. The problem is that we are dependent on other countries to respond to North Korea and cannot directly control what the response will be. This is the downside of multilateralism that all the democrats prefer. Often times are supposed allies have other interests than our own or they lack the political will to stand up to despots. Unfortunately, we don't the strength to handle this conflict on our own.

4. China holds the key to what happens next. If China plays hardball, North Korea's collapse will be expedited because China controls a majority of the fuel coming into North Korea. But China does not want North Korean refugees pouring across the border and their best interest is to continue the status quo. We need to make the case that a nuclear North Korea is a greater danger than taking on refugees. If we can't make that case, then we need to bribe China into action.

5. Is there any doubt that the UN is completely worthless? Whenever I hear that the UN is going to get involved, I know that we have already lost the battle. Despots do not respect the UN and only use it to delay action and influence world opinion. Several countries have obtained nuclear weapons under the UN's watch, so why should we trust them to provide answers to nuclear proliferation? My prediction is that the UN will offer stern words of condemnation, enact a couple of weak sanctions and nothing will be resolved.

6. This issue should play well for Republicans in the upcoming election because it shifts the focus back onto national security. Unfortunately, the republicans don't have a clear response on this issue so it may not help as much as they think. They keep talking about a missile defense system which sounds nice but will not address the real threat. North Korea will never attack us directly with a missile but they will sell their weapons and technology to terrorists and other regimes that would be willing to attack us. A missile defense system wouldn't prevent terrorists from bringing suitcase bombs into Manhatten.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Interesting football facts

I woke up this morning listening to sports radio and they were discussing all the new starting quarterbacks today. With Gradkowski starting in Tampa there are now 5 starting QB's from the MAC. Out of sheer curiosity I decided to look up every QB to see what conference they played in. The results were surprising. Half of today's starters played in 3 conferences. The PAC 10 is the dominate QB factory with 8 starters. The MAC is second with 5 and then the ACC is in third with 4. Although it's a dishonest count because both Vick and Hasselbeck played when their teams were in the Big East. If you count them in the Big East, then that conference has 4 starters. One other startling fact is how pathetic the Big 12 is. There are just as many starters from Division 2 as there are from the Big 12. And that starter is none other than rookie Vince Young. I guess all that wishbone offense held back the conference's QB development. And for you Lions fans, you have the distinction for cheering for the only division 2 starter. His conference was so bad that ESPN doesn't even list them in their conference standings. In terms of Specific teams, I was also surprised that Michigan has only one starter as they are often referred to as a QB factory. In fact the Big 10 has only two starters total. There are actually 4 teams with 2 starters each today and they include USC, AZ state, Washington, and Marshall. The following is a breakdown of the results. I hope you enjoy this useless trivia.

PAC 10 - 8
MAC - 5
ACC - 4 (includes all current teams)
SEC - 3
C-USA - 3
Big 10 - 2
Big East -2
Mountain West
Sun Belt
Big 12
WAC
North Central Conference (Division 2)

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Baseball Predictions

Now that the playoffs are started, I am changing my preseason predictions. Since I cannot root for the Pirates I am switching to the Tigers. And for financial reasons I am cheering for the Padres. I am not convinced that either of them will actually win the world series but it could be 1984 all over again. Without further ado here is how the playoffs will play out:

Tigers over the Yankees in 5
Oakland over the Twins in 4
Padres over the Cardinals in 3
Dodgers over the Mets in 5

Tigers over the A's in 7
Dodgers over the Padres in 6

Tigers over the Dodgers in 5

Take these predictions with a grain of salt as I thought this could be the year that Pittsburgh would make the playoffs.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Congressman Foley

It is sickening to read about the illicit emails that congressman Foley sent to a 16 year old male page. His action is such a violation of trust and I pray for the kids that he violated. As the details begin to leak out it appears that many people in Congress knew that something was not right. The page program warned new pages to be careful around Foley and the house leadership was alerted that there was a problem 6 months ago but failed to find anything specific and only warned him to limit contact with pages. My question is if the media could get a hold of these emails why couldn't the Speaker's office find them when they were investigating? The whole situation is a disgrace.

This morning I was listening to the radio and the talk is about how Foley's resignation will impact the midterm elections. With control of the House up for grabs this seat could tip the balance of power to the Democrats. But this discussion just trivializes what happened to these young boys and demonstrates what's wrong with our culture. We are more worried about political power than we are about protecting our young people. Who cares who wins that seat? The real issue is making sure that nothing like this happens again.

Sadly, I doubt this is an isolated incident. When I lived in DC there were often rumors about pages and congressmen having inappropriate relationships but they were mostly ignored as rumor and innuendo. Maybe congress should be more proactive to investigate these rumors in the future. I was going to write that maybe voters should be discriminating when voting for their leaders but how does the public know what happens in the dark hearts of man. We don't but there has to be system in place to reign in these passions but apparently that system is broken.

First Service

Last night we held our first official worship service at Barefoot Lansing. It went very well despite a few technical difficulties before hand and some last minute running around. We have a coffee lounge before the service to mingle and meet new people. I was supposed to be on coffee duty which requires making sure we had plenty of coffee made and such but I kept getting distracted with conversations. My friend Rachel took over thankfully and I don't think I will have that role next week. I enjoyed the coffee lounge idea but an hour is a long time to make small talk.

We had several new people attend which is encouraging and they all had different stories and reasons for being there. One couple recently got married and they haven't found a church that they both liked so they were checking us out. Two married women came without their husbands and were curious about the church after receiving our mailing. I don't think they are believers yet. One younger women was looking for the new church experience. She was already attending three other services weekly and is going to try and add us to the list. After the service, I met two men who are Antioch orthodox who came to the service mostly to criticize it and push their own version of the church. I pray that each of the new people who came were able to see God in the church last night.

The service itself went off without a hitch. I was able to be part of the worship band which was fun. Noah gave a compelling sermon on why we were created and pleaded for us to lead lives of meaning. Next week were are going to be talking about the fall and what to do with sin in our lives. I am interested to see who returns and if we get additional visitors. Starting from scratch it is hard to predict what's next but I have confidence that we are building a firm foundation.

Friday, September 29, 2006

Let's talk politics

Because I don't have enough things to do these days, I decided to start a seperate blog to follow the 2008 presidential election. The address is http://indecision2008.blogspot.com and there is a link to it from this blog. I think you will enjoy my political ramblings.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The Ryder Cup

The Ryder Cup starts this week Friday and I am already excited about it. In fact, of all the sporting events, I think the Ryder Cup might be in my top 5. Two years ago they held the event here in Michigan and I was able to attend a practice day which was very cool.

This year's Ryder Cup is hard to predict. After several disgraces by the Americans, we still are the perceived favorite. On paper we bring the top 2 players in the world in Tiger and Jim Furyk and several other accomplished players. But every year we bring the more talented team and every year the Europeans kick our butt with a bunch of guys who can't win a major and most of whom we've never even heard of.

In the Ryder Cup, the world rankings and raw talent mean very little. What counts is teamwork which is why the Americans struggle. Tiger and Mickelson both suck when it comes the Ryder Cup because they are so used to playing for themselves that they do not know how to play as a team. If either one of them would play up to their potential we would have a strong shot at bringing back the cup. However, the key to America's success will be how our young guys play this year. For the past few Cups we've had a lot of deadweight on the team and finally we have some new guys like Zach Johnson and JJ Henry to bring a fresh perspective.

I also think having Tom Lehman as captain will help the team this year. He has played well in these events in the past and he understands the camaraderie that it takes to win the cup. Having said that, my expectations for winning the cup are still low. Win or lose, I plan to sit back and enjoy the high drama of the Ryder Cup.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Is Islam Evil?

Last week the Pope made some remarks that were critical of Islam by stating that it was evil and inhumane. How did the Islamic community respond to these comments? They started rioting and threatening violence against the Pope. This morning it was reported that a catholic nun had been murdered in retalitation to the comments. It seems to me that this response only reinforces the Pope's argument. I can certainly understand being upset when someone criticizes one's religion but since when did that give license to respond with violence?

Also last week, Rosie O'Donnell on the View compared radical Christianity to the Muslim terrorists, presumably because many of us don't endorse her homosexual lifestyle. Her comments obviously drew condemnation from the Christian community but to my knowledge nobody has threatened her life or started rioting in the streets. Maybe Christians will boycott the show but I doubt that will work since nobody watches the View anyways.

It's irritating listening to all the pundits wring their hands when anyone questions Islam's true intentions or beliefs. Yet Christians get mocked and ridiculed daily in the media, the schools and in the entertainment industry. Why is there a double standard? And since when did religion freedom mean that average citizens cannot criticize other people's religion. By definition, if one is a Christian then they do not endorse Islam and vice versa. The two faiths have little to no room for agreement. The Muslims get this but apparently we hold freedom of religion as so sacrosanct that it applies to more than just government but to our own personal religious views.

Now as to content of the Pope's comments. I do not believe that all Muslims are evil people. They are no more or no less evil than I am as all men are born with sinful intentions. But as a religion Islam is in direct contrast to the redemption and transformation offered by Christ. You may not want to call that opposition evil but I would hardly call it good.

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Day of Caring

The other day our campaign decided to send several volunteers to the local United Way day of caring. While I was there I kept thinking that I was part of some NFL United Way commercial but it wasn't really that glamorous and no pro athletes were there to help. Our crew was assigned to clean up the baseball field and tennis courts at a park in Muskegon Hts. By the looks of things, nobody had touched the park in a long time and it was a mess. We were able to make some progress but it seemed a little futile because I wonder how many kids are actually going to use those fields even after they are cleaned up. Only time will tell I guess.

Several people have asked me why we sent our volunteers to clean a park when we are in such a close election. Most campaigns would be out campaigning but I can honestly say that my boss is different than most politicians. Some suggested that we were only there to get good PR for the campaign but we didn't send out a press release and to my knowledge my boss didn't even speak to the newspaper that was there covering the event. His avoidance of the spotlight was not unusual.

To give you an idea about my boss, I need to share story from our first reelection campaign. The legislature has just received a huge pay increase just as the economy was going in the tank. Several other representatives decided to donate portions of their raise to charities and made sure the media knew about it. It worked well and they got tremendous positive coverage. When I suggested that idea to my boss he simply replied that the left hand shouldn't know what the right hand was doing and that if he gave away his money it wouldn't be for political gain. In the end I think he did donate to several community groups but I'll never know for sure because he didn't broadcast it.

Even on days when I don't agree with my boss or when I get really tired of the campaign grind, I always look back to that story as to why I work for who I do. Anybody can work for an up and coming politician but few in my business get to work for somebody with such humility.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Government Spending


I was just finished an interesting conversation with my friend Craig about the proper role of government spending. He was trying to point out that government wastes money on useless things which I canagree to a certain point. However, not all governments spend lavishly. This morning for instance we had the Vice President of Travel Michigan before our committee to testify on the state's new advertising campaign to attract new tourists to the state. He wanted to show a DVD clip of the new commercials but the senate doesn't have any DVD players. We only have VCR's. Granted they are VHS and not Beta but not exactly high tech. I had to lug in a DVD player from home so we could view the clips this morning.

On a more serious note, Travel Michigan's presentation was very impressive. To view the adds, you can visit http://travelmichigannews.org/ads.htm. Last year, the state set aside $7.5 million from the 21st Century Job money to fund this marketing campaign. This was on top of the $5.7 million we spend in general fund money. This may sound like a lot of money but compared to surrounding states, we spend far less to attract visitors. Illinois spends $48 million a year in marketing. One interesting point about the money being spent for the campaign is that for every dollar spent, the state brings in $3.43 in new tax revenue. It's a convoluted formula but tourists do spend money when they come to Michigan and that generates lots of tax revenue. I point all this out to illustrate that sometimes government spending can actually reap a return on that investment.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

American Top 40 Flashback


XM radio has recently been replaying Top 40 countdowns from the 1980's. Being a child of the 80's I tuned in and it was like going back in time. Casey Kasem's familiar voice along with great hits from Kool and the Gang, Bruce Springstein and Loverboy, made me long for the music of my youth. They even had a long distance dedication.

What was fun about listening to the show was how vivid my memories are tied to music. I remember when I was about 10 my Mom would go to Sunday School over at Sutton Club Apartments. I would go with her but sneak out into the parking lot to listen to the top 40 countdown while sitting in the car. Things were so carefree back then that the only thing I worried about was if my favorite song would be number one. Today's music just doesn't carry the same emotional attachment as it did back then.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Football predictions

It seems like just yesterday that I was drinking champaign from the sweet cup of superbowl victory but alas the NFL season starts tomorrow night with the Steelers defending their crown against the Dolphins. It would have been a great game except that Big Ben is out because of his appendix. I am beginning to think he may be cursed. I can see all these Bengals fans plucking needles into their Roethlisberger doll wishing revenge and casting spells in the name of Carson Palmer.

Every year I like to pretend that I have some talent in predicting the season so I thought I would share my predictions.

AFC East
Miami
New England
Buffalo
NY

AFC North
Pittsburgh
Cincinatti
Baltimore
Cleveland

AFC South
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Houston

AFC West
San Diego
Denver
Kansas City
Oakland

The Bengals and New England will win the wildcard and Cincinatti will win the AFC championship.

NFC East
Philadelphia
Dallas
NY
Washington

NFC North
Detroit
Chicago
Minnesota
Green Bay

NFC South
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Altanta
New Orleans

NFC West
Seattle
St. Louis
Arizona
San Francisco

Dallas and Tampa Bay are the wildcards and Carolina wins the NFC Championship.

And the super bowl winner is Carolina over Cincinatti in a thriller.