Well the votes are in and my predictions were not far off.
Mitt Romney: 4,516 / 31.5%
Mike Huckabee: 2,587 / 18.1%
Sam Brownback: 2,192 / 15.3%
Tom Tancredo: 1,961 / 13.7%
Ron Paul: 1,305 / 9.1%
Tommy Thompson: 1,039 / 7.3%
Fred Thompson: 203 / 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani: 183 / 1.3%
Duncan Hunter: 174 / 1.2%
John McCain: 101 / 1.0%
John Cox: 41 / .1%
14,302 Total Votes
Romney did what he had to do and is still the Iowa front runner. Huckabee had a strong showing and will be quickly elevate him to the top tier in place of McCain. Brownback despite only finishing 300 votes behind Huckabee has big problems because he spent much more money than anyone other than Romney and planned on finishing second. He will soon drop out and it will be interesting to see where his voters go. My guess is they split between F. Thompson and Huckabee. T. Thompson and Hunter are both done after poor showings. So is McCain whether he admits it or not.
But the real story of the day was the total number of votes which was only about 2/3 the total number of voters from 1999. This reveals two things: First Iowans are dissatisfied with the Republicans candidates as a whole and second it reflects the overall national mood of Republican fatigue. Democrats are more energized and or organized this year. They draw larger crowds, raise more money and have much more enthusiasm. That does not bode well for the Republican candidate whoever it is.
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1 comment:
I'm impressed that your predictions were so well done. I'm a little surprised at Giuliani being so low, but pretty impressed at Huckabee's showing. However, only time will tell us who the candidates will be...
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