A while back I wrote that Fred Thompson's flirtation with running for President was part of an attempt to stop Guiliani and Romney from gaining momentum and that Thompson would serve as a Trojan horse for McCain. With recent polls showing Thompson and Guiliani virtually tied and McCain sinking like a rock, I am not so sure of my original assessment.
I just spoke with someone with close ties to the McCain camp and they are feeling very bleak. After months of sliding in the polls, lagging fundraising, holding the wrong position on immigration and having a former supporter get in the race, it is getting tougher and tougher to see just how McCain rights the ship and wins the nomination. I can easily see a scenario where McCain drops out before Labor Day. When I suggested this idea, the McCain supporter didn't vehemently deny that it was a possibility.
Without McCain in the race, Guiliani should dominate the moderates that vote in Republican primaries while Romney and Thompson and maybe Huckabee fight for the conservatives. It will be interesting see how things play out.
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With those conservatives that swear they won't vote for a Mormon (which boggles my mind, partly because he's the only guy that has been married once.) and the fact Romney has supported severe gun control, sliding off more conservatives, and his spotty abortion stance slides off even more.
I don't know that Thompson will get the nomination or that he will even get in the race.
Selling Romney as a conservative is like saying GW is a strict constructionist.
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