Since I won't be able to write tomorrow I thought I would share my predictions for the election on Tuesday. I'll be frank, it is going to be a bad year for Republicans. I suspect that Republicans will lose 27 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate but thankfully Democrats will not pass the magic number 60 and Republicans will maintain the opportunity to filibuster. In Michigan the scenario is just as bleak. The state house will see Republicans lose 9 seats bringing the total 67 Democrats to 43 Republicans. Fortunately for me, the Michigan Senate is not up for reelection this year.
Now onto the Presidential race: It will be closer than most polls suggest. The national percentage will be Obama 51 - McCain 48. However, the electoral college will not be as close. I predict a final total of 307-231 in favor of Obama. Basically McCain's only hope is to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania and while it could be very close I don't see him winning either one.
The critical voter group that decides this election will not be young voters or religious voters flocking Obama. They might see a modest increase in both totals but the swing group this year will be exurban voters. These are educated, middle to upper class whites who live 20-30 miles outside of the city in newer neighborhoods. I predict they will side with Obama overwhelmingly because of the loss in their home values, the stock market collapse and the high cost of gas.
Here is my state by state breakdown:
Obama states
Maine
Vermont
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
DC
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Illinois
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
McCain states
New Hampshire
W. Virginia
Kentucky
Indiana
N. Carolina
S. Carolina
Tennessee
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Louisiana
Arkansas
Mississippi
Missouri
Texas
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Kansas
N. Dakota
S. Dakota
Montana
Wyoming
Idaho
Arizona
Utah
Alaska
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
Fetz,
I think BO has helped McCain lock up pennyslvania and make virginia much closer.
I actually think we are going to have a reverse 2000. McCain has the mo going into tuesday, but it is too late. Obama is running around trying to suppress expectations which plays into what Mac has been saying.
I think the dems only pick up 6 seats and it could be muted by Kennedy who is gaining in polls and Mac is pulling away in Lousiana. The house is a disaster, however it will be better than 06. In 06 Republicans won no previously held dem. seat, that will not be the case they will win 5-7 seats but lose 29.
cj
Post a Comment