Romney and the Right

Much has been discussed about the vacuum in the Republican presidential race created by the lack of true conservative. Gov. Romney has been avidly trying to fill that void and it is working to some avail even in the midst of his changing his mind on certain cultural issues. At first I thought Romney's strategy was a very good one as he could stake out his ground in contrast to McCain and Guiliani who are both seen as moderates. Lately, I wonder if staying in the middle would not have been a better fit for him.

Last week's New Hampshire poll has McCain slipping among independent voters. He is down almost 20 percent since the last poll was taken. The obvious reason for this is his firm support of President Bush and Iraq war. While I agree with McCain on this point, it is not smart politics to tie yourself to a drowning president and a seemingly hopeless war. Thus the door has been opened for those precious independent voters. Romney may have missed his chance to go after these voters. Afterall he was a popular governor from a Democratic Northeastern state. Add that to the problems he is facing with evangelicals because of mormonism and it looks like he may have taken the wrong path. Rudy on the other hand is filling that moderate independent void very nicely which says he may have more staying power in this race than people give him credit for.

Most pundits argue that you go for your base during the primary and then to the middle during the general election. This thinking is old school and does not recognize the power of the new media. Whatever you say or do in the primary will be well documented during the general and makes it very difficult to moderate or change one's positions. People want authenticity and one clip on youtube of a candidate pandering to the right can ruin any attempt to try and get back to the center without looking like an opportunist politician. This old school thinking also fails to recognize that even Republicans are willing to look above ideology in pursuit of a winner. Given the choice between nominating a moderate who can win and a conservative who will lose, the party is leaning towards choosing the former. Instead of compassionate conservatism, let's call it pragmatic conservativism.

This mindset is what makes John McCain the current front runner. Whether or not you agree with him he has drawn independent voters in the past and that makes him look like a winner. But now that McCain is losing those independent voters there is a new dynamic that might lead other candidates to run toward the middle instead of to the right. Romney however has already hitched his candidacy to the conservatives. For his sake let's hope he made the right decision.