By Tuesday, Hilary Clinton will be done and we will finally have our match up in the fall election. McCain versus Obama is a very intriguing race. While the common wisdom is that 2008 will be a Democratic year, I am convinced that McCain has a very real opportunity to win in the fall. Here is how he can do it.
All elections are decided by one of three factors: personality, ideology and competence. Obviously Obama has a big advantage in terms of personality. That is why he is winning the democratic primary. Let's face it, Hillary's cold and sour personality was no match for him. In fact, it's a testament to her grit and determination that she has lasted as long as she has. To counter Obama's charm and personality he needs to focus on his own personal narrative of courage, patriotism and independence as a contrast to Obama. But if the race is predominantly about personality McCain loses.
McCain also needs to avoid the mistake of making this year's race about ideology. It will be tempting to do this because of Obama's extremely liberal record and because he'll see this as a way to make amends with the conservative base. McCain has already demonstrated he can win without appeasing conservatives in the primary so why should he go there in the general election. Besides, Obama comes across as post partisan regardless of his liberal record. Candidates should play to their strengths and McCain's strength is not being a partisan ideologue. The majority of the country is not liberal or conservative but somewhere in the middle which is where McCain is. He should stay there.
What McCain needs to do is make the election about experience and competence. Not just competence in running government but a demonstrated record of accomplishing the bi-partisan change that Obama claims to represent. Unlike Hillary's 35 years of "experience" McCain has a real record of results so I think his argument will work better than hers did in the primary. He can honestly claim success working across the aisle and standing up to members of his own party to do what he considered the right thing. While Obama talks the talk, McCain has walked the walk.
McCain needs to hammer away that Obama has never actually demonstrated any success working with Republicans on major issues or been willing to fight his own party. This approach will help peal away the independents who are yearning for change in Washington. McCain can say he was delivering change while Obama was still making speeches in inner city Chicago. This also allows him to turn his age into a benefit instead of a negative. He can say that he knows how Washington works and has the relationships needed to effect change while Obama doesn't because of his youth and inexperience. McCain's message should be who do you trust to deliver change? If he effectively makes this case, McCain will win easily in November.
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6 comments:
You seem to have better success predicting these things than I. I didn't think a senator could win the election, and now we have 2 to choose from.
I can't vote for a liberal, so I'm just wondering if I have to vote for McCain or if there might be a decent independent or 3rd party candidate I can vote for.
you really think McCain is a liberal? I consider him more of a lean right moderate. And on all the big issues minus immigration he is lockstep with conservatives. The only third real party possibility is Bloomberg and he isn't a conservative.
Hopefully, McCain's people don't run across this blog! This should be an exciting election season - a Obama/McCain match up will be a good one. Looking forward to debate parties!! Yep, I'm a nerd...
No, I don't think he's a liberal, I think he is a maverick. I was just saying that there is no way I'd vote for the CBS/NBC/ABC/CNN/NYT/UAW/NEA/DNC (liberal) candidate, but I'm still hoping for someone better than McCain. Bloomberg wouldn't get my vote anyway. McCain could still get my vote, but it would be for defensive (anti-liberal) reasons.
Obama/McCain will be an aggravating & disappointing race with nastier than ever mudslinging. Obama offers little experience as a leader and though he is articulate, he says nothing, and is nothing but a typical tax & spend liberal. Look for McCain's angry temper to arise and for him to pay little attention (as Fetzer suggests) to conservative issues, making us even less likely to turn out and vote for him.
I'm hoping Mrs. bill clinton will stay in a little while because McCain's campaign press people and his campaign manager won't attack Senator Obama.
Besides it's only March, what's this finally deal? We haven't had March Madness selection yet.
Senator Obama is going to slaughter McCain in the general, then hopefully the GOP will wise up in the primaries and only limit it to Republican voters, but we're talking about the GOP
I do not think Hillary will be toast. In fact there is a good chance she wins Texas, but does not win the delegates due to how the Texas dems split the delegates, some weird math. Plus, with Charlie Crist saying the state needs to have their delegates seated look out for the in fighting.
On to the McCain vs whoever fight. All political fights are ideological, some more prominent than others. The problem McCain is going to have is simple:
1) Energy-this is going to be the economic fight. The price of oil is going to kill the economy. We are letting OPEC control the price, because we do not even explore for it. If we were to just say we have this much confirmed oil in the Midwest, rockies, atlantic, pacific, gulf and great lakes what it would do to the market. However, McCain is stuck talking about Nuclear and other sources that are either not going to happen or are way out into the future, because of his insistance on make believe science.
2) Taxation-He is going to have a fight when it comes to taxation as Hillary or Obama will say I voted with you to prevent those taxes.
3) Corruption: While he should have been exonerated durring the keating 5, for political reasons Al Hofeld did not let it happen. Dems will point to that left and right. Plus, there are plenty of examples besides the matching issue dems can point to where he did not follow the law. The Republicans did not engage him on it because the respect him more than the dems do.
What he needs to keep the ideological fight:
1) Judges: This will keep the base fired up, while he did not get there support in the primary nor did he need them due to the scheduling, he has to have them in the general. This will sufice them.
2)the dollar. our economy is hurting due to the weakeness of the dollar. It is forcing up the price of everything. Two major causes govt spending and the feds insistance on lower interest rates. While it will hurt we need to control both, and he has a lot of credibility on this.
3)Trade: with a weak dollar we can bring back the manufacturing aspect of the economy. This also will help stregthen the dollar as it comes back to the US. Also, corporate taxes, another area he is strong. Cut them allow people to keep their companies here which also stregthens the tax base rather than raise them and chase away tax payers.
CJ
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