Big wins for Obama and Huckabee

Well my predictions were not too far off except I underestimated my man Huckabee or more likely overestimated Romney's vaunted organization. I guess it goes to show you that even the best campaign strategy and execution can't overcompensate a weak candidate. It is surprising though how well Huckabee did without a lot of paid staffers on the ground in Iowa and with the barage of negative ads run against him. Chalk it up to the power of personality.

Romney is finished. He may hang around for a while but McCain will win New Hamsphire and probably Michigan and Huckabee will win South Carolina. I am surprised Thompson hasn't dropped out already but he will shortly and most likely throw his support behind McCain. The wildcard is Giuliani. He needs to keep relevant and hold on until Florida and then pull off the upset over Huckabee. That would set him up for Feb 5th but I don't think he can do it. I suspect the race is down to Huckabee and McCain and that the establishment that fled McCain this summer will rally around him to stop Huckabee.

Obama's win is even bigger than Huckabee's. Does anybody else find it odd that a black man won in Iowa where there are like maybe a dozen black voters? I still think he'll face racism along the campaign trail but last night should help alleviate at least some of those fears. Edwards is finished and would do best if he quickly dropped out and then cut a deal with Obama to be VP again. I don't think he'll do it but he has no shot at winning. Hillary could still make a comeback but to do so is going to be very ugly. Obama is going to feel the full force of the Clinton hit machine over the next couple weeks. There is still a lot we don't know about Obama but we will most certainly find out soon.