Let the race begin

This weekend the Southern Republican Leadership Conference is being held in Memphis Tennessee. This conference includes important movers and shakers in conservative southern politics and is also drawing a lot of interest from presidential hopefuls. John McCain, Mitt Romney, Bill Frist and George Allen are all attending and giving speeches. The most important part of the event is the straw poll where the delegates get to vote for their favorite candidate. As I was watching hardball which is broadcasting live from the conference, it got me thinking about the 2008 race. Here are some questions that need to be answered before we get a clear view of how the race will shake out.

1. Will conservatives be so afraid of Hillary that get behind a mainstream secular candidate like John McCain or Rudy Guliani? These two both poll among the leaders in every internet poll but neither are trusted among conservatives. McCain rankled a lot of feathers by pushing through campaign finance reform and by striking a compromise to avoid ending filibusters on judicial nominations. Guliani is both pro choice and pro gay rights. Both issues are anathema in republican primaries. We are already seeing McCain gaining support especially among conservative senators in the south including Trent Lott and Lindsey Graham.

2. If conservatives don't support a moderate candidate will they be able to coalesce around one conservative candidate or will they end up splitting their vote and give the nomination to a moderate anyway? The two most likely persons to rally the true blue conservatives are George Allen and Sam Brownback. Allen is good looking and from the south. He is currently a Senator from Virginia. Brownback is a conservative Sen. from Kansas and he speaks aggressively to traditional evangelical issues. Allen has the better chance of winning the nomination but Brownback really connects to the base.

3. Will conservatives overlook the character or theological flaws of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney? Romney is Governor of Massachusetts so he obviously can win in supposedly blue states which makes him appealing. I have seen Romney speak in person and he is good on the campaign trail. He is solidly against gay marriage and is becoming a lot stronger on the prolife issue. Having said that, he is Mormon. Evangelical Christians may not want to put a Mormon in the Whitehouse even if they agree with him on the issues. Newt is the most well spoken of all the candidates and has obvious political skills. The more I listen to him in interviews the more I like what he has to say. The problem with Newt is that he cheated on his wife with a staffer and left the speaker's office in disgrace. Will conservatives overlook his personal shortcomings? Another thing against Newt are his extremely low poll numbers in the 1990's. Will Americans give him a second look or have they already made up their mind about him? Between the two I like Newt better but Romney has the better chance of winning.

4. Will Condi Rice run? Dick Morris has been talking her up for President for a long time. She has a great resume and is probably the smartest person in the running. She should help bridge the gender and racial gap that have hurt Republicans in the past but it is not clear just how much she will cut into these key constituencies. In addition because she is from California she can bring that state into play which would create big problems for Democrats. My guess is she just likes the attention and is not a serious candidate. Having said that she would certainly be open to being the VP.

5. What role will Bush/Cheney play? Usually the sitting VP is the presumed front runner but that is not the case with Cheney. I have heard recent rumors that he may retire after the mid-term elections and if that is the case, Bush could pick who he wants to win the nomination. It would be almost impossible for the party to not nominate his handpicked successor. Under this scenario it is likely that he would pick Rice because he certainly trusts her and she would continue his legacy. But the chances of Cheney resigning are only about 20% and Bush will stay on the sidelines and wait for his brother Jeb to run in 2012.

6. What issues will take center stage? If same sex marriage is the hot issue, that benefits Romney who has the led the fight against it in Massachusetts. If immigration is the issue, that helps a darkhorse named Tom Tancredo, an outspoken Colorado Congressman. If the war is the key issue, that helps McCain, Guliani and Rice. Of the three it helps Giuliani the most because of his 9/11 cult status. If abortion is the issue, it helps Brownback the most but basically hurts all the moderate candidates more than it helps a specific conservative. Keep an eye on the South Dakota anti abortion law because that could be going to the Supreme court during the nomination process. If winning is the issue, it will again help McCain and it probably helps Allen because he is seen as the most electable of all the conservatives. Rice could capitalize on this as well. Finally if the issue is about the recent scandals and election reform, this definitely helps McCain. My prediction is that immigration will be the dominant issue.

7. Will the lower tier candidates stick around or will they get in line behind the leaders? I would put Bill Frist and George Pataki is this category. Both are good Republicans and have impressive enough resumes but neither is going to win the nomination because they are both kind of boring. They represent different regions and wings of the party and could drag support away from other legitimate candidates. The longer they stay in the more they hurt Allen and Guliani. If they drop out they could swing their support behind their preferred candidate. But both will probably stay in the race much longer than anyone wants them to.

My early odds on the race are as follows:

McCain 3-1
Allen 8-1
Romney 15-1
Guliani 20-1
Gingrich 25-1
Rice 30-1
Brownback 35-1
Frist 50-1
Pataki 60-1
Tancredo 100-1
The field 30-1